Structural breaks in the mean of dividend-price ratios: Implications of learning on stock return predictability

In their out-of-sample predictions of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks, Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) implicitly assume that economic agents’ perception of the regime-specific mean for the dividend-price ratio is time-invariant within a regime. In this paper, we challenge this assumption and employ least squares learning with constant gain (or constant-gain learning) in estimating economic agents’ time-varying perception for the mean of dividend-price ratio. We obtain better out-of-sample predictions of stock returns than in Lettau and Van Nieuwerburgh (2008) for both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets. Our empirical results suggest that economic agents’ learning plays an important role in the dynamics of stock returns.     

Will you miss me if I am leaving? Unexpected market withdrawal of Norwegian Joy and customer satisfaction

The first “Made in Germany, Designed for Chinese” luxury cruise, Norwegian Joy, announced an unexpected Chinese-market-withdrawal decision on July 14th, 2018, less than a year after her maiden voyage from Shanghai. How does customer satisfaction change as a response to a cruise's market-withdrawal decision? By resorting to the confirmation of expectation theory, our paper highlights satisfaction as being a function of the baseline effect of expectations plus perceived disconfirmation of expectations. We propose that customer satisfaction will rise because the withdrawal decision implies strategic mistake of the cruise and therefore lowers customer expectation. Drawing on customers' comments on the largest travel agency website in China, we conducted sentiment analysis and used ‘difference in difference’ statistical approach to test our hypothesis. Results show that customer satisfaction increased after Norwegian Joy's withdrawal announcement.     

网络流行语中民众网络话语权研究

网络流行语作为网络文化的产物，映射当下现代文明的各类现状。通过挖掘网络流行语内在起因、情境和心理，以反沉默螺旋法则为理论依据，研究当代民众网络话语权的产生、表达方式和表达心态以及相关应对机制。希望通过本研究对我国社会行政管理科学化进程有所助益。     

山岭隧道洞口浅层滑坡处治关键技术研究

受地形地质条件、工程经济以及勘察深度等因素的制约,山岭重丘区隧道不可避免地会受到各种不良地质灾害的影响.为解决隧道穿越洞口浅埋段滑坡体的施工安全问题,以乐业至百色高速公路永乐隧道工程为研究背景,针对其地形地质条件及滑坡体情况,结合洞内变形与滑坡体变形相互作用机理,对隧道穿越洞口浅埋段滑坡体施工关键技术进行研究,并针对性地提出"洞外加固处治+洞内严格控制沉降"的综合处治方案.实践结果表明,本隧道工程穿越洞口浅层滑坡体的施工过程安全顺利,采取的施工控制措施方案实施效果良好.     

COVID-19, stock market and sectoral contagion in US: a time-frequency analysis

We assess the conditional relationship in the time-frequency domain between the return on S&P 500 and confirmed cases and deaths by COVID-19 in Hubei, China, countries with record deaths and the world, for the period from January 29 to June 30, 2020. Methodologically, we follow Aguiar-Conraria et al. (2018), by using partial coherencies, phase-difference diagrams, and gains. We also perform a parametric test for Granger-causality in quantiles developed by Troster (2018). We find that short-term cycles of deaths in Italy in the first days of March, and soon afterwards, cycles of deaths in the world are able to lead out-of-phase US stock market. We find that low frequency cycles of the US market index in the first half of April are useful to anticipate in an anti-phasic way the cycles of deaths in the US. We also explore sectoral contagion, based on dissimilarities, Granger causality and partial coherencies between S&P sector indices. Our findings, such as the strategic role of the energy sector, which first reacted to the pandemic, or the evidence about predictability of the Telecom cycles, are useful to tell the history of the pass-through of this recent health crises across the sectors of the US economy.     

The role of social proximity in professional CEO appointments: Evidence from caste/religion‐based hiring of CEOs in India

Research Summary: The role of homophily in CEO appointments at the largest corporations is an important subject in corporate governance. This subject is particularly important in a country like India where a multitude of religions, castes, and communities form its social fabric. We test for the role of homophily in professional CEO appointments in India by empirically examining the preference for same caste/religion CEOs by the largest firms. Using a unique dataset, assembled by detailed identification of castes/religions from family names and counterfactuals obtained through the Coarsened Exact Matching technique, we find that caste/religion plays a crucial role in CEO selection as a source of information (positive discrimination). The evidence is not consistent with its use to pursue taste‐based preferences (negative discrimination). Managerial Summary: We test for the role of homophily in the appointments of CEOs in India by empirically examining the preference for same caste/religion CEOs by the largest firms. We find that caste/religion plays an important role in CEO selection, i.e., as a form of information or “positive discrimination.” The evidence is not consistent with its use to pursue taste‐based preferences or “negative discrimination.”     

Forget about ‘the ideal worker’: A theoretical contribution to the debate on flexible workplace designs,work/life conflict,and opportunities for gender equality

This study integrates insights from Self-Determination Theory and Boundary Theory to present scenarios on how flexible workplace designs can trigger multiple motivational processes underlying gendered work/nonwork integration behaviors, and how these affect work/life conflict. We disentangle processes underlying work engagement and work/life conflict, explaining the paradoxical outcomes found with regard to gender inequality in terms of work/life performance, satisfaction, and health. Policy makers and organizations need an increased understanding and a reconceptualization of these issues, realizing that the ideal worker does not exist. Instead, a long-term perspective is needed in order to truly realize the potential benefits of flexible workplace designs for all stakeholders. Organizations need to take responsibility for preventing individual workers’ depletion and stimulating the regeneration of workers’ resources.     

Incorporating active adjustment into a financing based model of capital structure

The conventional partial adjustment model, which focuses on leverage evolution, has difficulty identifying deliberate capital structure adjustments as it confounds financing decisions with the mechanical autocorrelation of leverage. We propose and estimate a financing-based partial adjustment model that separates the effects of financing decisions on leverage evolution from mechanical evolution. The speed of adjustment (SOA) is firm-specific and stochastic, and active targeting of capital structure has a multiplier effect that depends on the size of financial deficit. Overall, we find expected SOA from active rebalancing (30%) more than doubles what is expected from mechanical mean reversion alone (13%).     

Trabajo decente para los trabajadores domésticos en Côte d'Ivoire. Inspección y actuaciones judiciales innovadoras en el marco del código general del trabajo

Se presenta un análisis contextualizado de las resoluciones judiciales dictadas en Côte d'Ivoire entre 1971 y 2013 en el marco del código general del trabajo. La jurisprudencia y las entrevistas cualitativas con actores institucionales muestran que las prácticas innovadoras derivan de la aplicación del código por inspectores y jueces que equiparan el trabajo doméstico a cualquier otro, lo que impide abordar su especificidad. Tras reafirmar que la regulación del trabajo doméstico debe englobar su dualidad (trabajo como otro cualquiera, pero diferente de todos los demás), se aboga por la creación de una comunidad internacional de aprendizaje sobre trabajo decente para los trabajadores domésticos.     

Understanding the dynamics between supervisor‐follower social capital,work engagement,and employees' creative work involvement

This study examines the previously unexplored mediating role of work engagement in the link between creative work involvement and the relational resources embedded in supervisor‐follower exchanges. We studied three relational resources inherent to the exchanges between followers and their supervisors: trust in supervisor, goal congruence, and relationship informality. Data were captured from IT professionals working at four well‐established IT companies in Ukraine. The findings show that relationship informality and goal congruence positively affect employees' creative work involvement, yet these effects are less pronounced when controlling for work engagement. The significance and implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2016 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.